NFL Week 5 Predictions: Upsets, Rivalry Drama, and a Few Bold Calls

Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and we've got a little bit of everything: a London game, divisional rivalries, potential upsets, and a Monday night showdown that could turn into an offensive shootout.

This is the point in the season when we start learning which teams are legitimate contenders and which teams are still trying to figure out who they are. I'm rolling with a few underdogs this week, and I have some words for a couple of coaches who need to prove something.

Let's get into the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Eagles win 23–20

The Eagles haven't looked like themselves consistently this season, but we've still seen flashes of the championship-level team they can be. When the pressure rises, Jalen Hurts has shown he can step up in the biggest moments.

Jacksonville's defense is physical and flies around the football, so Philadelphia won't have an easy time in London. The Jaguars have been playing strong football, and the Eagles need to avoid the mistakes that have held them back recently.

Still, I'm betting on Philadelphia's championship DNA. Sometimes, you have to trust a team that has already been through the fire. I expect a gritty game that comes down to the final possession.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles, 23–20.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Prediction: Browns win 20–17

This has the potential to be an ugly football game, and I mean that in the most respectful way possible. Neither team can afford to give away possessions, and this matchup could come down to which offense makes fewer mistakes.

I'm taking Cleveland because I expect its defense to make enough disruptive plays to create a narrow advantage. The Browns don't need to be spectacular; they just need to be the more disciplined team.

If the Jets can establish an offensive rhythm early, they have a chance to steal this one. But I'm giving Cleveland the edge in a low-scoring battle.

Pick: Cleveland Browns, 20–17.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers win 24–23

I'm taking Green Bay to stand up and beat Chicago. Matt LaFleur cannot keep letting Ben Johnson little-bro him in this rivalry. At some point, the Packers have to remind the Bears that Lambeau Field is still their house.

Chicago has been running the football extremely well. Through the first four games, the Bears averaged 196.3 rushing yards per game, a remarkable pace that puts serious pressure on Green Bay's defense.

But this is exactly why LaFleur needs to make a statement. Johnson has brought a different energy to Chicago, and the Packers cannot allow the Bears to dictate the terms of this rivalry every time they meet.

I expect Green Bay to find a way to make the critical plays late. LaFleur needs to show that he can counter Johnson's approach instead of letting his rival walk away with another bragging-rights victory.

Pick: Green Bay Packers, 24–23.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Bengals win 27–17

Cincinnati gets my vote because I believe it has the offensive firepower to create separation in this matchup. The Bengals need to establish a rhythm early and make Miami defend the entire field.

For the Dolphins, the challenge is staying competitive when Cincinnati starts finding its rhythm. Miami needs to sustain drives and avoid putting its defense in difficult situations.

I'm expecting the Bengals to take advantage of their opportunities and pull away in the second half.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals, 27–17.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Prediction: Raiders win 24–20

I'm going with the Raiders to pull off a road upset. Las Vegas has shown it can compete, and I think this team has enough defensive ability to make life difficult for New England.

The Raiders are coming off a narrow 30–27 loss to Kansas City, a game that showed they could hang with a quality opponent. Now they have to prove they can finish the job.

The key is making Drake Maye uncomfortable and forcing the Patriots to earn every yard. Las Vegas also needs to protect the football and capitalize when it gets into scoring position.

New England will have its opportunities, but I'm backing the Raiders to make enough plays late to leave with the win.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders, 24–20.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Vikings win 27–20

Minnesota gets my pick in this matchup. The Vikings have been finding ways to win, but they'll need more offensive consistency if they want to keep their momentum going.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has struggled to find its footing. The Saints have the talent to make this competitive, but they cannot afford to fall behind early and spend the rest of the afternoon chasing points.

I expect Minnesota to do enough offensively to pull away late. It might not be pretty, but wins count the same whether you score 40 points or grind out a seven-point victory.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings, 27–20.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Texans win 23–13

Houston gets the nod in this AFC South matchup. The Texans have struggled to find consistency early in the season, but this is an opportunity to take care of business against a division opponent.

Tennessee needs to generate more offense and avoid falling behind early. If the Titans cannot sustain drives, they'll put too much pressure on their defense to keep Houston off the scoreboard.

I'm expecting Houston to play a disciplined game, take advantage of its scoring opportunities, and control the second half.

Pick: Houston Texans, 23–13.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders

Prediction: Giants win 23–20

I'm taking the Giants in a close divisional game. Washington has the home-field advantage, but I think New York has a chance to make enough disruptive plays to steal this one.

The Giants have already shown they can win games in dramatic fashion. Their last-second pick-six against Arizona in Week 4 was a reminder that this defense can change a game in one play.

That ability to create turnovers is what makes me comfortable taking New York. The Giants don't have to dominate from start to finish; they just need to create one or two game-changing moments.

Washington should make this competitive, but I'm trusting the Giants to deliver when it matters most.

Pick: New York Giants, 23–20.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Colts win 27–24

I'm taking Indianapolis to get a statement win in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are never an easy opponent at home, but I think the Colts have enough momentum to make this a competitive game all the way through.

Indianapolis is coming off a convincing 30–13 win over Washington in Week 4, a performance that showed what this team can do when it puts together a strong all-around effort.

Now the Colts need to carry that energy into a tougher road environment. Pittsburgh will try to make this a physical game, but Indianapolis has a chance if it can sustain drives and avoid turnovers.

I expect this to come down to the final possession. Give me the Colts to make one more play and leave Pittsburgh with a statement win.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts, 27–24.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Prediction: Chargers win 27–24

This could be one of the more competitive games of the weekend. Denver has the ability to make things difficult, especially if its defense can keep the Chargers from getting comfortable offensively.

But there's another storyline here: Jim Harbaugh cannot afford to let this season spiral. If the Chargers were to fall to 0–5, imagine having to look his dad, Jack, and his brother, John, in the eye after that kind of start.

Family dinner might turn into a full film session. And you already know John would have something to say.

Jokes aside, the Chargers need to protect the football, stay aggressive, and take advantage of their opportunities in the red zone. Harbaugh has built his reputation on physical, competitive football, and his team needs to show that identity when it matters.

I'm taking Los Angeles at home in a close one.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers, 27–24.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: Lions win 31–20

Detroit gets my pick because I expect its offense to create problems for Arizona throughout the afternoon. The Lions have the potential to put points on the board in a hurry, and that puts pressure on the Cardinals to keep pace.

Arizona needs to avoid giving Detroit short fields and must find ways to sustain drives. If the Lions establish control early, I expect them to build a lead and hold on for the win.

The Cardinals could keep this interesting for a while, but I'm trusting Detroit's ability to make explosive plays and finish drives.

Pick: Detroit Lions, 31–20.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Seahawks win 27–24

I'm taking Seattle to protect its home field and hand San Francisco a loss. This isn't just another NFC West rivalry game; it's a matchup where Mike Macdonald has repeatedly made life difficult for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy.

Remember when Macdonald was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore? The Ravens intercepted Purdy four times in a 33–19 win over San Francisco on Christmas night in 2023.

And the problems continued in Seattle. In the 2025 NFC divisional playoffs, Macdonald's Seahawks defense dominated the 49ers in a 41–6 victory. Purdy finished with just 140 passing yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.

That's the matchup that has my attention. Macdonald's pressure looks and defensive disguises can make it difficult for Shanahan to get his offense into a comfortable rhythm. Purdy is capable of lighting up a defense, but Macdonald has shown he knows how to make him uncomfortable.

Seattle's defense has also recorded six interceptions through four games, tied for the NFL lead. If the Seahawks can create another turnover or two, they have a real opportunity to control this game.

San Francisco is talented enough to win, but Seattle has the home-field advantage and the defensive blueprint. I'm betting Macdonald makes Shanahan work for every yard again.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks, 27–24.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 30–24

I'm taking Atlanta in this matchup, and the biggest reason is simple: no Lamar Jackson on the road is a major problem for Baltimore.

The Ravens lose the explosiveness and playmaking ability that Lamar brings, especially when a play breaks down and he turns a potential sack into a 20-yard run. Without him, Baltimore has to prove it can generate enough offense to keep up in a game that could turn into a shootout.

Meanwhile, Atlanta looks like one of the most dangerous offenses in football. The Falcons have the ability to attack defenses in multiple ways, and I like their chances of putting pressure on Baltimore throughout the game.

There's also the coaching factor. Jesse Minter is in his first year as Baltimore's head coach, and the Ravens are still working to find their identity defensively under his leadership. Atlanta has an opportunity to take advantage of that adjustment period, especially if its offense gets rolling early.

Baltimore still has talent, so I'm not expecting the Ravens to simply roll over. But asking them to win on the road without their franchise quarterback while their defense is still finding its footing is a tough assignment.

Give me Atlanta to take advantage, put points on the board, and pull away late.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons, 30–24.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Prediction: Bills win 30–27

Give me Josh Allen in a close game, especially against a Rams defense that I don't think is as intimidating up front as advertised.

Allen's most recent matchup with Los Angeles was ridiculous. In December 2024, he threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more, totaling six touchdowns and 424 yards of combined passing and rushing production. Buffalo still lost that game 44–42, which tells you just how wild that matchup was.

The point is that Allen has already shown he can put this defense under enormous pressure. If the Rams cannot consistently get home with their pass rush, Allen has the arm strength, mobility, and improvisational ability to turn broken plays into explosive gains.

The Rams have a dangerous offense of their own, so Buffalo cannot afford to trade away possessions or settle for field goals. But I like Allen's ability to create something when a play breaks down.

Los Angeles will put up points, and Matthew Stafford is capable of matching Buffalo drive for drive. This has the potential to be one of the best games of the weekend.

But I'm trusting Allen to make the final big play this time around.

Pick: Buffalo Bills, 30–27.

Final Week 5 Picks

Matchup	Prediction
Eagles at Jaguars	Eagles 23–20
Browns at Jets	Browns 20–17
Bears at Packers	Packers 24–23
Bengals at Dolphins	Bengals 27–17
Raiders at Patriots	Raiders 24–20
Vikings at Saints	Vikings 27–20
Texans at Titans	Texans 23–13
Giants at Commanders	Giants 23–20
Colts at Steelers	Colts 27–24
Broncos at Chargers	Chargers 27–24
Lions at Cardinals	Lions 31–20
49ers at Seahawks	Seahawks 27–24
Ravens at Falcons	Falcons 30–24
Bills at Rams	Bills 30–27